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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still